By Bill McGoun
All of the BRIC nations -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- are growing their economies with a greater government role than in the U.S., but China is doing it on steroids. At the same time, problems are developing in each of the four.
Those were the conclusions of four panelists discussing �Rising Powers: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S.� Friday at the AOJ convention.
China�s growth, an extreme case of the state-led development, is slowing down, said Shelley Rigger of Davidson College. The model may have run its course, she said, or perhaps the downturn is short-term.
Other challenges facing China�s leaders are island territorial claims, which Rigger said were not all China�s fault though Chinese actions have exacerbated the situation, and uncertainties about the leadership transition. In the latter regard she alluded to the disappearance of heir-apparent Xi Jinping, who had dropped from sight for more than a week.
Brazil also has its economic problems, and it has failed in its attempts to be a regional leader, said former ambassador Myles Frechette, now with the Council of the Americas/American Society. Taxes are high, labor and electrcity are costly and infrastructure is weak, he said, and there is a need for more private investment.
Russia seeks modernization, but it rejects Westernization and prefers state-run businesses, said Eugene Huskey of Stetson University. He said the Russian leaders know they are not the U.S.� greatest adversary, as Mitt Romney has said, but they enjoy the attention.
Huskey added that the Russians, who have their own restless religious minorities, tend to favor autocratic rulers who keep such dissent in check, such as Syria�s Bashar al-Assad. They see no conflict in blocking the extension of U.S. influence even while engaging the U.S., Huskey added.
Pallavoor Vaidyanathan of the India Center at the University of Central Florida concentrated on the opportunities. He cited a broad range of areas in which cooperation is being sought. Some of them are innovations, science and engineering research, space research, health matters and infrastructure and security. He conceded that India can be a hard market to crack.
The only other panelist to devote attention to opportunities was Frechette, who said the U.S. and Brazil need to accommodate their differing world views and build trade ties.
Jonathan Gurwitz, moderator, had some choice advice for his fellow AOJ members. (1) Come to our annual spring briefing at the State Department. and (2) take rising nations seriously view this brief video.
Bill McGoun is a retired editorial writer for The Palm Beach Post. He frelances and is a contributing editor for the Asheville (N.C.) Citizen-Times. He is the author of 7 books and holds a Ph.D. in anthropology from the University of Florida.
(Minor page update 9/28/12 12:34 p.m. cdt)
