The outcome of any Israeli or U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear program is highly unpredictable, but a decision is not urgent just now, according to retired Marine Brig. Gen. Steve Cheney.

He made that point both times he spoke to the AOJ convention, one day as a fill-in panelist on challenges to U.S. diplomacy, and then in prepared remarks on national security broadly at the next day's lunch.

His organization, the American Security Project, is set up to "take topical issues and look at them from a national security standpoint." On these two days those issues included energy independence, climate and drought pressures on other nations' stability, diplomacy and more � including, repeatedly, Iran.

Some of his points:

• Natural gas supplies have risen to 35 percent of total energy sources, enough to meet all U.S. needs in industries that can use natural gas, and with half the pollution of coal. More important is being free of dependence on foreign supplies of gas. But there is risk in becoming overly dependent on any energy source.
   
• Fusion energy, a tamed form of nuclear power that would produce usable energy with only water as a byproduct, will matter a lot, but China is ahead in the difficult and expensive research on it.
   
• U.S. military people now are highly qualified. After recruiting difficulties during the economic boom of the 1990s, it has become possible to raise standards. No real high school diploma? No enlistment. A six- to 12-month wait for boot camp. Most mid-level officers with master's degrees or more.
   
• The drawn-out deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan show the futility of easy military success without solid follow-up. 
   
• The nuclear nonproliferation treaty led to reductions, and 11 nations giving up their weapons programs.
   
• But Iran is another matter.

Like others, Cheney cited estimates that if Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, the program might be set back two years. A U.S. strike, four to six years. The repercussions could be huge, and highly unpredictable. His key words of caution: Push diplomacy, fund the State Department and USAID well, don't let foreign politicians sway U.S. security decisions � and always consider military force the last resort.

[video 3 minutes] 

--John McClelland